FindItMore | There are so many factors that need to be considered before making a bet on the Melbourne Cup. Sure, picking a horse based on its funny name could end up winning you big money, but to increase your chances of backing the right horse, you need to do your research.
Breed, performance history, training and jockey are all big factors to consider, but if the last few years are anything to go by, the horse’s country of origin is also an extremely important element to think about. So before you place a bet on one of the Melbourne Cup 2019 horses, let’s take a look at how well international horses have performed in recent years.
Let’s look at some facts…
The last time an Australian-bred horse won the Cup was in 2009. This was a Mark Kavanagh-trained horse called Shocking.
In 2017, eleven out of the twenty-three runners were from Europe and eight of those finished in the top ten. Irish-trained horse Rekindling ran to victory and was followed by another two Irish-trained horses in second and third position.
In 2018, the first ever British-trained horse, Cross Counter took the Melbourne Cup trophy. This was one of eight European trained horses in the top twelve positions.
Prominent race-horse owner Lloyd Williams, who has six Melbourne Cup wins under his belt, has not won a Melbourne Cup title with a Southern Hemisphere bred horse since Efficient in 2007. In fact, his last three winners (Green Moon in 2012, Almandin in 2016 and Rekindling in 2017) were all European bred and trained.
In the last nine years, only one winner of The Cup had not previously raced in Europe.
International horses and injuries
Although the Cup has seen a significant increase in the amount of international runners in recent years, and the facts & stats seem to suggest that they are more likely to win, backing an international horse doesn’t guarantee a slam dunk either.
In fact, all of the horses that have died at the Melbourne Cup in the last five years came from overseas. It is not yet known why exactly this might be, but some experts believe that the travel from overseas can have a significant impact on the health of the horses which can increase the risk of injury and even death. Others have hypothesised that perhaps the horses from the UK in particular are not prepared for the harder tracks we have in Australia, having previously run on the softer British tracks.
So should you bet on an international horse?
As with anything in horse-racing, there are never any guarantees. And although the stats over the last few years may suggest that international horses are likely to dominate the field at this year’s Melbourne Cup, anything can happen on race day. If you’re planning to place a bet on an international horse, be sure to look at when they arrived in Australia and how or if they have performed since their arrival.
It’s also worth remembering that whilst the origin of the horse is a factor to consider, it is not the only factor to consider. So many other things contribute to a horse’s success or failure. If you’re really interested in making a serious bet on this year’s Melbourne Cup, your best port of call is to do your research and study the Melbourne Cup Form Guide in detail. This will provide with all sorts of invaluable information to help you make an educated bet.
What should I look for in the Melbourne Cup Form Guide?
The Form Guide is released once the final field of 24 horses is announced on the Saturday prior to the Melbourne Cup race. It is an extensive guide with endless statistics and invaluable information. To get the most out of your Form Guide, you should look at the weight each horse is carrying, the jockey, the trainer’s track record, barrier numbers and the horse’s performance over the last few races.
When it comes to making a serious bet at the Melbourne Cup, the Form Guide should be your bible. Whether you’re betting on an international or an Aussie horse, make sure you do your research and pay attention to all the valuable information provided in the form guide.
Good luck, we hope you win some money (and bragging rights down the pub) this year!